Right here’s a shock: The New England Patriots are Eight-Three, main the AFC East, with a few of the greatest odds within the convention of profitable the Tremendous Bowl.
Oh, proper. I’ve simply described principally each Pats season in current reminiscence. That is the ninth consecutive season that New England has gained at the very least eight of its first 11 video games. The staff’s present Elo score of 1641, nevertheless, is the bottom it’s been by means of the identical stage of the season since 2009 (and we don’t speak about that season).
So what are we to make of those Patriots, then? After overcoming the standard early season hiccups, is that this yr’s model able to construct championship momentum down the stretch like regular? Or is there nonetheless one thing just a little bit off a few group that was showering its punter (of all gamers) with reward after an uncharacteristically modest win over the lowly New York Jets final week?
Prematurely of New England’s showdown Sunday towards the Minnesota Vikings, let’s check out a few of the Patriots’ calling-card metrics to see whether or not this season is enterprise as ordinary in Foxboro.
One of many Pats’ most eye-catching statistics throughout Invoice Belichick’s time as head coach has been their near-invincibility at house, the place they’ve gained 87 % of their video games this decade. However their street report — profitable greater than 70 % of the time away from Gillette Stadium — might be much more exceptional. From 2010 to 2017, the Pats’ profitable proportion on the street was about 10.5 proportion factors larger than what we’d anticipate from their house document — the third largest hole within the NFL (behind the Cowboys and Eagles):
This yr, although, New England is an ideal 5-Zero at house however solely Three-Three on the street — respectable however nowhere close to the league’s greatest. (The Pats have additionally been outscored by 11 factors in away video games, towards a street schedule that ranks simply 28th in common opposing Elo.) And this may come up within the playoffs, in contrast to so many seasons during which the Pats had home-field benefit by way of the AFC title recreation. Proper now, New England is in line for the AFC’s No. 2 seed behind the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, however solely a half-game separates them from the fourth-seeded Steelers.
Proudly owning the turnover battle
Turnover margin is among the most necessary elements in figuring out who wins or loses any soccer recreation. Typical stathead knowledge, although, tells us that outlier turnover seasons — whether or not avoiding them on offense, forcing them on protection, or each — are unsustainable. Whereas there are some methods a workforce can affect its tendency to have extra takeaways than giveaways, a whole lot of it additionally comes right down to luck.
Until, in fact, you’re the Patriots. New England perennially dominates this class, rating first by a mile from 2010 by way of 2017 with a +116 turnover differential, virtually double that of the next-best group. A whole lot of that may be a perform of getting Tom Brady at QB; he’s tied for the second-lowest interception proportion of any passer in NFL historical past. However the Pats are additionally nice at avoiding fumbles — solely the Falcons had coughed it up fewer occasions since 2010, and no staff had misplaced fewer fumbles than the Pats. And their protection had pressured the second-most turnovers of any staff this decade (behind the Giants), rating second in interceptions and tied for third in fumbles recovered.
Such opportunism has traditionally paid huge dividends for New England, however this yr’s squad continues to be making an attempt to recapture that components. The Pats are at present +5 in turnovers, which ranks ninth within the league however is nothing particular by their requirements. Brady has his highest interception fee since 2013 (his seven picks already are just one off of his full-season complete from final yr), driving an enormous general improve in giveaways per recreation, although the group is being extra cautious in current weeks. And whereas the Pats have pressured at the very least one turnover in all however one recreation this season, they’re tied for eighth-to-last within the league in video games with three or extra takeaways, six behind the league-leading Bears.
Yards and factors
Along with — and correlated with — their dominant turnover differential, the Patriots have all the time had one other trick up their sleeves when it comes to profitable additional video games. It includes their yards per level (YPP): primarily, how effectively they flip subject place into scores on offense and the way inefficiently they drive opponents to do the identical. By definition, when you will have a decrease YPP than the opponent, you’ll win extra typically since you’re buying and selling subject place for factors at a extra favorable fee than they’re.
Like turnover margin, YPP is meant to be fairly inconsistent from yr to yr, bouncing round with a workforce’s luck at choosing up key first downs and changing purple zone possibilities, together with the all-important knack for “bending however not breaking” on protection. But the Pats dominate this class so completely and so persistently, it may be the only largest issue of their ongoing success. Not solely had they ranked first in each offensive and defensive YPP since 2010, however their internet YPP differential of +5.6 was greater than double the No. 2 Packers’ +2.5 mark over that span.
(This is among the huge causes that worries concerning the Patriots’ protection all the time must be tempered. Belichick’s workforce has historically punched above its weight when it comes to factors allowed, simply because it all the time makes opponents work so exhausting to show positive factors on the sector into rewards on the scoreboard.)
This season, the Pats stay among the many prime internet YPP groups, rating fourth, however they don’t seem to be fairly dominating like ordinary. They rank simply seventh in offensive YPP and sixth on protection, with a internet YPP of +2.Eight, which trails the Bears, Saints and Chiefs. On prime of the rise in turnovers per recreation from above, New England’s effectivity rankings on third down and within the pink zone are worse, and the workforce has slipped in those self same “situational” classes on protection. And if you would like one other trigger for the Patriots’ YPP decline, their internet beginning area place is -2.6 yards per drive this season (which means the opponent begins 2.6 yards nearer to the top zone than the Pats), after a decade by which that quantity was a league-best +four.6.
In different phrases, most of the little issues that often add as much as that large YPP benefit for New England aren’t fairly working as nicely thus far this yr. However the excellent news for the Pats is that their turnover margin and internet YPP have a tendency to enhance radically from this level within the season onward, in no small half as a result of Belichick particularly tries to construct a troublesome, bodily workforce that thrives in dangerous climate. So even in a relative down season by their key indicators, don’t be stunned if the Patriots construct them up no less than some earlier than season’s finish.
Tight finish Rob Gronkowski has lengthy been the Pats’ not-so-secret weapon on offense, serving to the group transition seamlessly from the highly effective Randy Moss-Wes Welker offense of a earlier period to the model that’s been terrorizing the league for many of this decade.
However the famously fragile Gronk has appeared to point out his age and mileage this season greater than maybe ever earlier than. He’s missed three video games with numerous illnesses, and when he has performed, he’s been restricted to only 63.Zero yards per recreation with a career-low Zero.25 landing catches per contest. Gronkowski’s decreased mobility has harm his trademark potential to rumble after the catch for spectacular positive aspects, and it’s made him a lot much less of a focus within the offense than he’s accustomed to being. When on the sector, Gronk has seen solely 18.7 % of the targets within the Pats’ passing recreation, his lowest quantity since getting 17.7 % as a rookie.
However Gronk’s affect on the Patriots’ offense stays plain. Within the eight video games the star tight finish has performed in 2018, Brady’s passer score is 98.2; within the three he missed, it dropped to 91.6 (league common is 94.9). Even with Gronkowski enjoying in a extra restricted bodily situation than typical, producing much less of a statistical footprint than earlier than, that is affirmation that he’s nonetheless one of many largest engines driving the Patriots’ success. The most important query may merely be what sort of sturdiness Gronkowski’s banged-up physique could have over the remainder of the season.
Brady stays ageless … kind of
Together with Belichick, the one fixed in New England’s dynasty has been No. 12 underneath middle. Brady has in all probability been the only most dear participant within the NFL this century, and he’s been essential in engineering 5 Tremendous Bowl titles for the Patriots together with his consistency, management and skill to rally the staff again from seemingly insurmountable deficits.
However at 41 — an age at which just about no different QB has ever been productive — there’s a near-constant look ahead to any signal of slippage in Brady’s efficiency. And he has been a bit much less sharp statistically than in years previous. His adjusted internet yards per try index at Professional-Soccer-Reference.com, which measures passing effectivity relative to the league (the place 100 is common), is 111 this yr, down from 117 final season and 138 the yr earlier than that. It hadn’t been so low since Brady was barely above common (102) in 2013.
In fact, there are causes for Brady’s decline that transcend his superior age, from Gronk’s aforementioned absences to a four-game suspension for prime goal Julian Edelman at first of the season and a WR corps in flux early on earlier than including Josh Gordon and shuffling roles for the likes of Phillip Dorsett and (WR-turned-RB) Cordarrelle Patterson. However Brady has managed to work round bizarre receiving conditions earlier than — and, the truth is, his passer score was higher over the season’s first 4 video games (94.Zero) than it’s been over the 4 most up-to-date ones (90.Eight).
Mix that with a ProFootballFocus grade that’s down a bit from final season (although nonetheless sixth-best amongst QBs) and people ubiquitous stats about Brady’s off-target throws (at 22.1 %, no certified passer has thrown an errant cross extra steadily this yr), and it’s truthful to ask whether or not Brady is enjoying at fairly the identical degree as he did over the previous few seasons. Whether or not due to Brady or the receivers, the Pats are at present tied for eighth in adjusted internet yards per try — their worst displaying since (once more) 2013, a season that noticed New England fall brief within the AFC title recreation.
Taken altogether, these numbers reveal a Patriots squad that isn’t absolutely enjoying on the degree it’s used to at this stage of the season. And that exhibits up in big-picture indicators corresponding to Elo and even level differential, the place the Pats’ +58 margin is its weakest of the last decade by means of 11 contests. Besides, a lessened model of the Patriots nonetheless ranks among the many league’s prime groups. And as we talked about above, the Vikings might be a great opponent for Belichick to make use of as a measuring stick for his roster. In accordance with our mixture of matchup high quality (i.e., the harmonic imply of the groups’ Elo scores in every recreation) and recreation significance (how possible it’s to swing both group’s odds of creating the playoffs), this would be the fourth-best recreation of the week:
One of the best matchups of Week 13
Week 13 video games by rating of common Elo scores (utilizing the harmonic imply) plus rating of complete potential swing for the 2 groups’ playoff possibilities, based on FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions
|Playoff %||Playoff %|
|Staff A||Present||Avg. Chg*||Group B||Present||Avg. Chg*||Complete Change||Recreation High quality|
Recreation high quality is the harmonic imply of the Elo scores for the 2 groups in a given matchup.
*Common change is weighted by the probability of a win or loss. (Ties are excluded.)
Supply: ESPN Stats & Info Group
Whereas the sport has much more at stake for Minnesota, whose spot within the playoffs continues to be not absolutely locked in, there’s nonetheless lots for the Patriots to play for as properly. Not solely will this recreation have an effect on seeding for the postseason (Elo says the Pats at present have a 60 % probability of securing a first-round playoff bye), however it should even be one other telling knowledge level as as to if the Pats can get again to their mega-dominant type of the current previous, or in the event that they’ll be merely good — however mortal — in line with their signature metrics.
FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers
If you wish to know the place your workforce stands, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo scores are a superb indicator. You possibly can examine them out in our NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the remainder of the season 100,000 occasions and tracks how typically every staff ought to make the playoffs and win the Tremendous Bowl. Do you know it’s also possible to decide towards the Elo algorithm in our prediction recreation? Attempt it out, and perhaps you’ll be able to climb up our big leaderboard.
Listed here are the video games through which Elo made its greatest — and worst — predictions towards the reader picks final week:
Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 12
Common distinction between factors gained by readers and by Elo in Week 12 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction recreation
|OUR PREDICTION (ELO)||READERS’ PREDICTION|
|PICK||WIN PROB.||PICK||WIN PROB.||End result||READERS’ NET PTS|
|CIN||75%||CIN||63%||CLE 35, CIN 20||+13.four||
|CAR||62||CAR||57||SEA 30, CAR 27||+four.1||
|CHI||53||CHI||59||CHI 23, DET 16||+2.9||
|HOU||58||HOU||63||HOU 34, TEN 17||+2.Three||
|NE||77||NE||82||NE 27, NYJ 13||+Zero.four||
|PIT||70||PIT||69||DEN 24, PIT 17||+Zero.Zero|
|DAL||65||DAL||67||DAL 31, WSH 23||-Zero.5||
|IND||68||IND||70||IND 27, MIA 24||-Zero.6||
|NO||81||NO||83||NO 31, ATL 17||-Zero.9||
|LAC||84||LAC||85||LAC 45, ARI 10||-Zero.9||
|BAL||83||BAL||81||BAL 34, OAK 17||-2.Three||
|TB||63||TB||58||TB 27, SF 9||-5.7||
|PHI||80||PHI||69||PHI 25, NYG 22||-Eight.1||
|MIN||71||MIN||60||MIN 24, GB 17||-10.Zero||
|BUF||56||JAX||55||BUF 24, JAX 21||-13.Zero||
Residence groups are in daring.
The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ common factors don’t essentially match the variety of factors that might be given to the typical reader prediction.
On common, Elo beat our readers by 18.9 factors within the recreation final week, bringing its report to 11 wins and one loss thus far this season. Readers had the most effective decide of Week 12 — rightly pumping the brakes on Cincinnati’s probabilities of beating the Browns — however they have been punished for selecting towards Elo within the Payments’ upset over the Jaguars, they usually didn’t present sufficient religion within the victorious Vikings, Eagles and Bucs.
Amongst particular person customers who did higher than common, congrats are with a view to Ryan Gnizak, who led all customers in Week 12 with 263.5 factors, and to Greg Chili Van Hollebeke, who held on to a slim lead for the complete season with 934.5 factors. Because of everybody who has been enjoying — and in the event you haven’t, be sure you get in on the motion! You can also make picks now and nonetheless attempt your luck towards Elo, even when you haven’t performed but.
Take a look at our newest NFL predictions.